Genetic potential, when it comes to building muscle is an important thing to understand. Many gym goers, especially guys, have unrealistic expectations of what is possible for a natural (i.e. no steroids or growth hormone) lifter. While there is nothing wrong with setting lofty goals, adding some realism to those goals can help avoid getting caught up in marketing hype or unrealistic expectations that will ultimately discourage progress. Lately, I’ve been reading quite a bit about predicted genetic potential for drug-free lifters for two key reasons:
1) Determining realistic lifetime training goals for building lean muscle
2) Determine where my current progress falls on the spectrum of lifetime achievement
Point 1 is merely interesting, but point 2 is actually quite important in the short-run, because lifters who have only just started making progress can gain muscle and strength far more quickly than experienced lifters. Lyle McDonald wrote about this in his article on Genetic Muscular Potential, stating that lifting newbies can expect to gain about 20-25 pounds of lean muscle in their first year of proper training, 10-12 pounds in their second year, half that in their third, and so on. Essentially, muscle building is a logarithmic function (i.e. diminishing returns over time), with an approximate limit equal to one’s maximum genetic potential.
They key phrase in all of this is “proper” training. If someone’s training for 10 years consists of running on a treadmill and 20 rep-sets of curls and tricep kickbacks, they will not come anywhere near their 20-25 lb muscle gain. If, after 10 years, they were to start on a proper training regimen with squats, deadlifts, presses, and rows while applying progressive overload they would still be able to gain 20-25 pounds in the 11th year because they would finally be training properly. Thus, to determine realistic rates of muscle gain, it makes sense to assess where you fall on the continuum of lifetime progress. Most people, after all, don’t start out doing things right!
First, let’s look at what is realistic lifetime goal for a natural lifter. Dr. Casey Butt has written at length about this in his obviously named book, Your Muscular Potential. On his website there is an article that does a good job summarizing the book, though really nerdy people like me will enjoy the science and math in his book. His position is simple: the human body has predictable limits to muscular growth that can be determined by the size of your frame, using ankle and wrist measurements. He includes a genetic potential calculator on his website for you to plug in these values, and it will provide you with a realistic maximum of what you can expect to achieve after 5+ years of good, dedicated weight training. My values are as follows:
Height: 69 in
Wrist: 7.1 in (My wrist is slightly larger than average for my height)
Ankle: 9.2 in (I have a significantly large ankle for my height)
Using these values, a realistic maximum for me would be a bodyweight of about 196 lbs (at 10% bodyfat), with a 48 inch chest and 17 inch biceps and calves. Considering that I currently weigh about 176 lbs, adding another TWENTY pounds of lean mass to my body (and 6″ to my chest and 2″ to my biceps and calves) would be a significant achievement. While some are discouraged by the genetic limits of natural lifters, any lifter or athlete approaching these values would stand out in a crowd. In fact, getting to about 95% of these values would put you in the realm of champion natural powerlifters and bodybuilders. Anyone that saw you would probably think that you may be using steroids or other drugs. Yet at the same time, you would not have that ridiculous bulk that many bodybuilder-types have.
Now that we’ve looked at the long run, what about the short run? I have been training for over a decade, but how much of that has been “proper training?” As I wrote in my Progressive Overload post, I have spent YEARS training without making any real progress other than improving my general athleticism and health. That is, I have not maximized my muscular growth. By combining Dr. Butt’s (sorry, I couldn’t resist) data on genetic potential with Lyle McDonald’s data on yearly growth potential, I put this together:

This is the nerdiest graph on my website. And considering that I even HAVE other graphs on my website, that is saying something.
As you can see, my bodyweight of 176 lbs (at my current body fat of about 10%) puts me square in the middle of year ONE of training. Despite 10+ years of training, I am likely still capable of gaining muscle at a rate of 1lb/month for another 6-12 months because my training has not maximized muscle growth. It would not be unreasonable for me to be a lean 185 lbs at the beginning of 2012 (14 months from now). This makes sense, as I only started deadlifting in 2007/2008 and getting aggressive with heavy lifting in 2009. I spent a lot of time “feeling the burn” and “increasing intensity” and have since learned my lesson and focused on getting stronger. Dr. Butt believes that an athlete can reach 90% or more of their genetic potential within 3 years of proper training, so my progress is right in line with his predictions.
Understanding genetic potential is important for realistic goal-setting. I think that many people overestimate what is possible without drugs, yet they underestimate what a drug-free athlete at his or her potential looks like and is capable of. A drug-free athlete who has approached the maximum of their genetic potential will be very physically imposing and tremendously strong, and would certainly stand out in a crowd. So, don’t be discouraged by these limitations, but use them to assess your progress and work towards your goals, whatever they may be.
Recent Comments